It may be more than a coincidence that one of Kemi Badenoch’s most senior advisers – an Australian strategist called Timothy Smith – worked for Sir David Davis in 2008 when he called a surprise by-election.
The Tory MP triggered a poll in his Haltemprice and Howden constituency in protest over then-prime minister Tony Blair’s plans to introduce 42 days of being able to hold terror suspects in detention without being charged.
In calling the by-election, Sir David had to resign from the Tory frontbench where he was shadow home secretary. But debate over the issue – which he saw as a major infringement of civil liberties – failed to catch fire when nobody serious stood against him.
He essentially became a lone candidate against a collection of people like the Monster Raving Looney Party candidate. The political stunt quickly fizzled out.
Now, Ms Badenoch has joined Labour, the Lib Dems and the Green Party in deciding not to put up a candidate to stand against Nigel Farage in the “fake by-election” in his constituency of Clacton – even though the Tories stand the best chance of the main parties of winning.
It means the Clacton vote is set to be a contest between Mr Farage and Count Binface – and a few other fringe candidates. And it means Mr Farage’s hopes of getting a mandate to justify himself over questions around his personal finances and political friendships will come to nothing – just as Sir David’s hopes of creating a debate in 2008 also failed.
But, we may soon revisit the entire question if another by-election is called. That could happen if Mr Farage is found guilty of impropriety as part of the conclusion of the parliamentary standards investigation.
Either way, what is now emerging is something far more dangerous for Mr Farage.
Count Binface’s candidacy has gained cult status on social media and scores of people are already asking how to donate to his campaign – and are even offering to knock on doors for him.
Never mind the Count’s policies on having corners properly refereed in football, ending food subsidies in parliament or conscripting people who play loud music on public transport, he is becoming the anti-Farage candidate.
All this is taking place in an atmosphere where massive tactical voting campaigns are seeing people attempting to stop Reform.
Tactical voting did for Reform in the by-elections of Caerphilly, Gorton and Denton and Makerfield.
William Hill are now quoting Count Binface as the 9/2 second favourite behind Mr Farage who had, rather ironically, hoped the by-election would pit him against the establishment.
A man wearing a dustbin mask is hard to brand “the establishment.”
It is, of course, extremely unlikely that the Count would win but perverse things do happen. In 2002, the Hangus the Monkey mascot for Hartlepool Football Club won the mayoral election as a protest vote.
Stuart Drummond, the man in the mascot costume, would in the end go on to serve three consecutive terms as the town’s elected mayor.
The issue for Mr Farage is that Count Binface does not need to win to humiliate him. A substantial vote of even 10 per cent or above would be extremely embarrassing for the Reform UK leader.
Defeat, though, would be career-ending even for a man like Mr Farage who has had more political comebacks than Lazarus.
There are likely to be other contenders, including actor Laurence Fox – who leads the right-wing protest party Reclaim – as well the Rejoin the EU Party and Monster Raving Looney Party.
But, if those parties were also persuaded to drop out and Mr Farage were to be the only candidate, there would still need to be an election to fill the vacancy – at a cost of £250,000 to the taxpayer.
As things stand, the Reform UK leader is in one of the more farcical contests in recent times – trying to ensure he is not consigned to the dustbin of history.
